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Best Intentions for Lawson
(10/1/2003) CFO Project Volume 2
By Robert Kugel, Ventana Research
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Summary

June 3, 2005 - Lawson will merge with Intentia Software, a Swedish company, in a transaction worth about $500 million. The result will be company with nearly US$1-billion in revenues from a more balanced set of verticals, enterprise software product categories and geographies. Based on communications from the companies' managements, Ventana Research sees little impact on users -- as there will be no attempt to combine products or integrate the day-to-day workings of the companies in the near term. To the extent there were viability questions about Lawson or Intentia in the minds of customers, we expect they may be allayed, but competitors also are likely to instill fear about future product plans. In short, the merger starts with the best intentions - it will take a year or so to see what the next steps will likely be and to assess the impact they will have on the company and its combined user base.


Ventana Research believes the combination is unlikely to have any impact – positive or negative – for Lawson North American users within the next 12-18 months. We believe there is some upside to Lawson’s North American sales if the change in management (there will be a new CEO and Board of Directors) increases the focus on selling Performance Management software into the existing Lawson customer base. Longer term, the impact on both Lawson’s and Intentia''s customers may be positive but there is scant evidence to make this assertion with assurance, since the undeniable theoretical potential must be judged against the difficulty of ultimately combining the two organizations and product lines. For the moment, other than in Performance Management and analytics we see little potential for significant top line growth as a result of combination, since sales and marketing for the two companies are aimed at very different verticals and there is no stated plan for cross training or changes in compensation. Moreover, we do not see how a Lawson account executive with gaming and lodging expertise is ever likely to be very successful selling an entirely different application to any North American customer outside Lawson''s core markets.


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